Journées de l'optimisation 2007 Optimizations days

The TIMES/MARKAL family of energy modeling tools has become the most widely used family of models, with more than 50 established national, regional and global applications in more than 40 countries. This remarkable success is due in great part to the existence of ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program), an international consortium of researchers, which has been a very effective forum for developing new modeling concepts, creating and marketing new computer interfaces, maintaining model databases, and producing many applications and analyses of energy and environmental policies. In this presentation, we survey the modeling tools developed around the TIMES/MARKAL family, and we give a brief account of the range of applications, from models of single cities to national energy models, and to World multi-regional models some of which even incorporate a representation of Climate Change. The author and his colleagues from GERAD and ETSAP have been main developers of several of the tools presented.

The TIMES/MARKAL family of energy modeling tools has become the most widely used family of models, with more than 50 established national, regional and global applications in more than 40 countries. This remarkable success is due in great part to the existence of ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program), an international consortium of researchers, which has been a very effective forum for developing new modeling concepts, creating and marketing new computer interfaces, maintaining model databases, and producing many applications and analyses of energy and environmental policies. In this presentation, we survey the modeling tools developed around the TIMES/MARKAL family, and we give a brief account of the range of applications, from models of single cities to national energy models, and to World multi-regional models some of which even incorporate a representation of Climate Change. The author and his colleagues from GERAD and ETSAP have been main developers of several of the tools presented.

There is a revival in the nuclear debate observed in the literature. Our objective is to analyze the role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios using the World-TIMES bottom-up model. World-TIMES is a global model with 15 regions that optimizes their entire energy system over a 100-year horizon (2000-2100). We present energy and emission results for climate scenarios for two levels of CO2 concentration (450 and 550 ppmv by 2100). We specifically analyze the penetration level of nuclear energy in these scenarios, under various sets of assumptions on technology parameters and exogenous constraints on nuclear energy development to reflect social perceptions. Among our results, we can highlight that in all scenarios, nuclear energy technologies satisfy most of electricity production. Reducing GHG emissions to stabilize CO2 concentration to 450 ppmv by 2100 impose very stringent technological changes. Due to the present configuration of the energy system, CO2 concentration is still increasing until 2040. Most regions experience an energy transition based on advanced oil and gas technologies and by using as much as possible hydropower. Other renewable technologies might play a more important role but need further cost reductions or new regulations to penetrate the market in substantial proportions. Carbon sequestration and endogenous demand reductions for energy services are also significantly contributing to reach environmental target.

During the past decades the energy sector has been a source of conflict, most visible in the struggle for oil and over the risks of energy use. Climate change itself, induced by carbon emissions from fossil energy, poses an area of substantial insecurity and conflict if adequate mechanisms of minimizing risks, balancing interests and institutionalizing cooperation cannot be found. In addition, climate policy poses challenges for methodological approaches in decision-making. Decisions under deep uncertainty and complexity hardly fulfill the requirements of established optimization methods such as long-term foresight and information about the options and systems involved. In a world with a vast number of actors who dynamically interact across multiple levels established game theoretic approaches reach their limits to provide reasonable solutions over long periods. Addressing the challenge, methods are required that draw on concepts of robust and adaptive decision-making among multiple actors. The approach describes a system dynamics that implements a social learning mechanism from conflict to cooperation through a sequential coalition formation process. Adaptive decision rules of individual actors on emission reductions and technical change in the energy sector are a function of the knowledge, expected utilities and risks for a given time horizon. In a multi-region framework the allocation mechanism seeks to satisfy tolerable guardrails for each region and principles of equity and fairness, such as equal per capita shares, proportionate to GDP or emissions. Cooperative management and coalition formation processes are discussed that mutually adjust positions and resources among multiple actors.