G-2018-77
Generalization bounds for regularized portfolio selection with market side information
and BibTeX reference
Drawing on statistical learning theory, we derive out-of-sample and optimality
guarantees about the investment strategy obtained from a regularized portfolio
optimization model which attempts to exploit side information about the financial market
in order to reach an optimal risk-return tradeoff. This side information might include
for instance recent stock returns, volatility indexes, financial news indicators,
etc. In particular, we demonstrate that a regularized investment policy that linearly combines this
side information in a way that is optimal from the perspective of a random sample set is
guaranteed to perform also relatively well (i.e., within a perturbing factor of
\(O(1/\sqrt{n})\)
) with respect to the unknown distribution that generated this sample
set. We also demonstrate that these performance guarantee are lost in a high-dimensional regime
where the size of the side information vector is of an order that is comparable to the
sample size. We further extend these results to the case where non-linear investment policies are considered using a kernel operator and show that with radial basis function kernels the performance guarantees become insensitive to how much side information is used. Finally, we illustrate our findings with a set of numerical experiments involving financial data for the NASDAQ composite index.
Published October 2018 , 25 pages
This cahier was revised in April 2019
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